Final Oscar Predictions.

Given how "Slumdog" spoiled the fun of predicting who'd win many (if not most) categories, this year the possible upsets lie in the acting races and some of the technical awards which I refuse to believe will go the Danny Boyle flick (in recession times a sweep would be too indulgent).
After re-watching the movie the other day, I couldn't help but feel a tad disappointed at how people have failed to see beyond the energy of the film.
Like the newly appointed American president, who I think should stop appearing everywhere (he's a politician not a rock star...why was he in my "Vogue" last month?) the movie's optimism has blinded everyone and people who at some point were "thinkers" have succumbed to the most childish kind of joy and have failed to see how obvious its manipulation devices are.
I don't want to sound like a sourpuss, although it might be too late for that, but I worry about what the hangover of this optimistic drunkenness will be like.
Then again I have to remember, we're just talking Oscars here...

Best Picture

Will win: "Slumdog Millionaire"
Should win: "The Reader"
Should have been nominated: "WALL-E"

Sadly, this one is practically a lock.
So unless the entire Academy suddenly realizes that "Slumdog" will not fix the recession, cure any form of cancer or banish poverty from the world, there's no way this movie can lose this award.
Weird that the most successful film, in award terms, is such an unexpected, almost bizarre choice. Even though a lot has been made about the way the Academy snubbed "genre" films, Boyle's hit might count as genre, sorta, as it includes some Bollywood-isms into its Dickensian narrative (I have a whole international genre theory, a la "Crouching Tiger" that might've worked if the movie wasn't such a lock at this point).
If there was any justice Stephen Daldry's severely underrated "The Reader" would sneak into voters' minds and take the big prize if only for the way it's being treated and also because it's by far the best picture of the bunch. Those who condemn it as "the Holocaust movie that stole Batman's spot" are merely reflections of the film's greater message about how easily we cast judgment to benefit ourselves.

Best Director

Will win: Danny Boyle, "Slumdog Millionaire"
Should win: Stephen Daldry, "The Reader"
Should have been nominated: Andrew Stanton, "WALL-E"

Boyle infuses his films with an energy that is nothing short of wondruous, which is why this award is well deserved...but not for this film! Especially when the man has delivered much better work previously. Still, arguing why he shouldn't win won't make him lose and this is the one award this film could never ever lose.
Ron Howard's nomination is an insult and David Fincher actually would be a worthy winner, since it's not his fault the screenplay for his film sucked so much, because he did prove his cold approach gives a special something to the epic genre.
I'd vote for Stephen Daldry in a heartbeat, who actually does deserve all his nominations and with "The Reader" proves he's truly brilliant at transferring intellectually challenging ideas into images. He may scream "stock director" to so many (Weinstein haters mostly) but isn't it true that people like Victor Fleming and Michael Curtiz were also heavily bossed by their producers? And see the masterpieces they delivered...

Best Actor

Will win: Mickey Rourke, "The Wrestler"
Should win: Rourke or Sean Penn, "Milk"
Should have been nominated: Leonardo DiCaprio, "Revolutionary Road"

If I ever wished for a tie at the Oscars it would be here. Bad boys Rourke and Penn deliver truly masterful performances in their respective films and if I'm leaning for Rourke is only because Penn won a few years ago, if the more deserving Bill Murray would've won that year, this would be a walk in the park for Penn, but I'm sure voters won't want to reward him again so soon (this rarely happens if your name doesn't rhyme with skank and you're in a Clint Eastwood movie) .
Especially not when they can vindicate Rourke, who nobody ever expected to resurface like this (even if he was the only good thin in "Sin City" a few years back), his work in this film goes beyond acting, which is why some people say he just played himself and might want to give the vote to Penn (again he doesn't just imitate Harvey Milk, he actually becomes this man, he's perfect!) but no, the Academy is rtaher corny most of the time and the ovation for Rourke would only be smaller in comparison to the other actor who will win in the Supporting category...

Best Actress

Will win: Kate Winslet, "The Reader"
Should win: Winslet
Should have been nominated: Kristin Scott Thomas, "I've Loved You So Long"

Best Actress and Supporting Actress were a complete mess until the Academy decided to remove Kate from one of the categories and upgrade the performance she'd been winning awards for in the other category. So this being "Kate Year" and all, there's no way she can lose this. It also helps, a lot, that she was just so perfect as Hanna Schmitz.
You leave the film without thinking of her as a Nazi, child abuser or criminal and this is all Winslet.
Anne Hathaway was amazing in "Rachel Getting Married" but the movie wasn't very loved by the Academy, Meryl Streep (who should win if only for the speech she will deliver) was incredible in "Doubt", but she's Streep, when isn't she incredible? And the film again wasn't really loved, but admired.
There's Jolie who like her man got into the race almost by default (their acting is so dull that they might actually play each other at some point) and Melissa Leo who is very likable, but whose movie wasn't really that good. Those upset rumors about her are almost ridiculous. So yeah Dustin Hoffman loves her, but everyone else loves Winslet and with her double whammy in this and the underrated "Revolutionary Road" should stop being bridesmaid once and for all.

Best Supporting Actor

Will win: Heath Ledger, "The Dark Knight"
Should win: Josh Brolin, "Milk"
Should have been nominated: Bill Irwin, "Rachel Getting Married"

Ledger started the buzz by dying the day last year's nominations were announced (and he was mentioned a lot by Daniel Day Lewis in every award show last year too).
He sealed it when the movie opened.
The Academy won't resist rewarding a posthumous award after decades of not doing it, even if Brolin's performance as Dan White is chilling and the best in the category.
At least they didn't nominate Dev Patel...

Best Supporting Actress

Will win: Penélope Cruz, "Vicky Cristina Barcelona"
Should win: Cruz
Should have been nominated: Rosemarie DeWitt, "Rachel Getting Married"

Penélope Cruz gave the performance of the year in Woody Allen's ingenious, clever and sexy film about expatriates, threesomes and art and she's also won Best Supporting Actress awards from England and Spain's respective Academies (that never hurts huh Marion Cotillard?). Her María Elena is archetypal Woody (and he's gotten two actresses three wins in this category alone) and her line delivery is perfection, but Cruz goes beyond the Allen-esque and gives her character a more sordid background, that María Elena breaks your heart as much as she makes you laugh and even arouses you is testament to an actress at the top of her game. Now that Winslet has stopped getting her awards, Penélope should be the lock (the buzz started at Cannes last May and rightfully returned to her)...but there's talk of an upset from one of the "Doubt" women, especially Viola Davis who gives a superb performance in one single scene and even when this category loves limited roles, Davis hasn't been making too much noise (which might be sign of a sneak attack...).
This however is perhaps the best category, in terms of quality, out of the acting races and honestly almost any of the nominees would make a fantastic winner (except maybe Taraji P. Henson) with Penélope being the highlight of the night.

-Best Original Screenplay
Will win: Dustin Lance Black, "Milk"
Should win: Andrew Stanton, Jim Reardon, "WALL-E"
Should have been nominated: Woody Allen, "Vicky Cristina Barcelona"

This is perhaps the best shot at Oscar for "Milk" and even if the screenplay was flawed (the movie is mostly about ensemble and delivery) Black will get to kiss a man, if he's dating someone, before he goes up the podium to receive Oscar.
Too bad that animated films are rarely taken into consideration for the "big" awards, otherwise "WALL-E"'s magnificent storyline and even greater execution would nab this award.
Overall it's a great category, even if it's rather odd: a Mike "Improvisation" Leigh screenplay over the actress who made the film? A comedic thriller about two killers? No Woody for his greatest film in years?

-Best Adapted Screenplay
Will win: Simon Beaufoy, "Slumdog Millionaire"
Should win: David Hare, "The Reader"
Should have been nominated: Justin Haythe, "Revolutionary Road"

If "Slumdog" doesn't deserve an award it's for its screenplay, which is so full of plot holes, implausibilities and plain under-writing that you feel its whole "it's written" theme was the screenwriter's method of self defense.
This should be David Hare's who with "The Reader" proves he's the go-to-guy for translating "impossible" books into movies.
He should've won this award for his layered, miraculous work in "The Hours" (a book that I never thought could be turned into a movie, much less a good one, just like when I read "The Reader").

-Best Animated Feature
Will win: "WALL-E"
Should win: "WALL-E"
Should have been nominated: "Waltz With Bashir"

"WALL-E" is so good that should also win Best Picture! Period.

-Best Foreign Language Film
Will win: "Waltz With Bashir"
Should win: "Revanche"
Should have been nominated: "Gomorrah"

The Academy hates this category and each year they try their best to nominate the worst offerings from other countries, perhaps in order to drive us to horrid blockbusters during the summer.
This year they left out the Italian masterpiece that is "Gomorrah", but also left a couple worthy candidates (I've yet to see them all, who has seen them all for that matter?) in the running, but Ari Folman's animated documentary will be a worthy choice, this award should go to Austria's best contender yet (that it won last year is a sorta sad thing, especially when they had this coming) which is a film so good that it's a surprise that they even nominated it.

-Best Documentary Feature
Will win: "Man on Wire"
Should win: "Man on Wire"
Should have been nominated: "Standard Operating Procedure"

Like "Slumdog" in Best Picture this one is a lock, it's won every single thing.
If, they went for something else here, we might be in for a big upset at the end of the night.

-Best Cinematography
Will win: Claudio Miranda, "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
Should win: Roger Deakins & Chris Menges, "The Reader"
Should have been nominated: Mandy Walker, "Australia"

The Academy likes nominating handheld stuff here ("City of God", "The Constant Gardener" and the brutally robbed "Children of Men") but it rarely, if ever, wins, so you have to wonder if the whole Academy is sure of what each category means. Do all of them know that cinematography includes camera moves and not just lighting?
Apparently, from their choices, they don't, which is why I don't see them rewarding "Slumdog" here. Think of "Benjamin Button" as this year's "Pan's Labyrinth". Not that it wouldn't be a worthy winner either way, Miranda's work with Fincher is spectacular in the best sense of the word and since cinematography screams "pretty" to Academy voters, they will prefer evoking the image of a ballet dancing Cate Blanchett, over a kid covered in shit.

-Best Art Direction
Will win: "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
Should win: "Changeling"
Should have been nominated: "Australia"

The longer the film, the more the art direction, the easier the choice.
Expect "Benjamin" to rule in the tech categories, where it does shine.

-Best Costume Design
Will win: "The Duchess"
Should win: "Australia"
Should have been nominated: "Sex and the City"

Usually understood as "Most Costumes" this category always favors period pieces with huge dresses, which is why the last two years alone prove they don't give a damn for how much the costumes contribute to the film as long as they look difficult to wear.

-Best Editing
Will win: "Slumdog Millionaire"
Should win: "Milk"
Should have been nominated: "WALL-E"

The less you can see in each frame usually means the better the editing, at least for Academy members who also relate this award to the eventual Best Picture winner and will easily favor "Slumdog" here.

-Best Music, Original Score
Will win: A.R Rahman, "Slumdog Millionaire"
Should win: Alexandre Desplat, "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
Should have been nominated: Nico Muhly, "The Reader"

It's pretty much a "Slumdog" world...and the score is energetic and very good, but...
If there was any justice, Alexandre Desplat would be collecting his third Oscar this year, arguably one of the greatest living composers his elegant pieces often end up adding an unexpected layer of classic sophistication to all the movies that feature them.
Can you imagine Scarlett Johansson being as seductive in "Girl With a Pearl Earring" without Desplat's themes? Do you see "The Queen" being so full of intrigue without his picaresque, slightly baroque score? And we shouldn't even go into the ones he's been snubbed for...
His work in "Benjamin Button" might be one of his finest yet and like the good part of the film (Fincher's direction and Miranda's tricky camera work) it's completely detached, haunting and effective.

-Best Music, Original Song
Will win: "Down to Earth" from "WALL-E"
Should win: "Down to Earth" from "WALL-E"
Should have been nominated: "All Dressed in Love" from "Sex and the City"

I see this category like this: on one side you have two "Slumdog" candidates and usually these cancel each other out right? Just see the two last years to prove this theory.
Plus it's in an unknown language (although this matters little to these people) and most won't know one song's title apart from the other.
But, it's "Slumdog" so it gets tricky...
But OK, then there's also the "WALL-E" song which not only is understandable, and gorgeous, but also talks about the planet and being green and what not (which got Melissa Etheridge her Oscar two years ago...).
There's also the fact that by rewarding this song they'd be giving out Oscars to the incomparable Peter Gabriel and the brilliant Thomas Newman who believe it or not has never won an Oscar.
They love getting overdues out of the way (see Randy Newman who, like his cousin, won unexpectedly for a Pixar movie) and if they can get two for one, it's even better so expect this one to trump Bollywood and the inevitable Dev Patel dance step.

-Best Makeup
Will win: "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
Should win: "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
Should have been nominated: N/A

Omg! It's Brad Pitt looking like he's twenty!
Omg! It's Cate Blanchett looking like she's a hundred!
How much was CGI, how much was makeup is something voters won't even stop to wonder about, giving this film one of its most deserved awards.

-Best Visual Effects
Will win: "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
Should win: "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
Should have been nominated: N/A

See above.

-Best Sound Mixing
Will win: "The Dark Knight"
Should win: "WALL-E"
Should have been nominated: "Iron Man"

They love loud movies and musicals here.
We've no musicals, except for the "Slumdog" credits sequence, so expect Batman, like Jason Bourne and King Kong to take this category by surprise.

-Best Sound Editing
Will win: "WALL-E"
Should win: "WALL-E"
Should have been nominated: N/A

Ben Burtt is a genius and "WALL-E" is perhaps his greatest achievement yet.
If voters find out what the difference between Sound Editing and Mixing is, both awards should go to "WALL-E".
Call this wishful thinking and see as "Slumdog" probably gets this...

-Best Documentary Short
Will win: "Smile Pinki"

-Best Short Film, Live Action
Will win: "On the Line"

-Best Short Film, Animated
Will win: "Presto"

As you can see I've got "Slumdog" for a "paltry" five wins on Oscar night and I honestly call this wishful thinking as most people are predicting a sweep (some might even suggest a tie in Best Song so that they can win all ten awards) but I honestly don't see that happening.
The Academy hasn't been in a sweep mood lately, "The Lord of the Rings" doesn't count, and in harsh economic times it'd be too indulgent not to "spread the wealth".
Whatever happens in the end, the show itself is promising to be something more exciting than we've seen in Academy history, so between Hugh, the fashion and whatever your drink of choice for your party will be, we can all at least try to have a good time.

The Academy Awards air February 22nd on ABC.

SAG-gy.

I won't even bother with predictions for tonight's Screen Actor Guild Awards, considering this group has rewarded Paul Giamatti, Johnny Depp and Ruby Dee in recent years for performances that were nominated for Oscar but lost, it's obvious that they don't seem to care who'll end up winning a few weeks later (just take a look at their ensemble lineup last year, it was bizarre, but worthy so it made sense).
This year they have a thing for "Slumdog Millionaire" and who doesn't lately? So I expect it to get Best Cast, even if its inclusion in the category is preposterous, but how the hell will they resist those cute little kids' faces via satellite from Mumbai when they win?
They'll think they're doing UNICEF work when in reality they're degrading their craft considering this year we had some remarkable ensemble work from the people in "Rachel Getting Married", "Elegy", "Vicky Cristina Barcelona" heck even "Australia" and "Mamma Mia!" would make more sense than "Slumdog".
But ok, breathe, maybe this is all a crazy rant and the impressive ensemble of "Doubt" will get the award, which they should considering the cast is perfection.
SAG has a thing for sentimental faves (which is why we can expect a looong ovation for Heath Ledger) and unless they're feeling Kate backlash (which I think is limited to Batman fanboys and award bloggers) she will win an award tonight.
But let's analyze things properly, would it matter if she won Supporting for "The Reader" and Meryl or Anne got Lead?
Truth is that SAG history has shown us that these situations are solved by giving the award to the second favorite (see Supporting Actor in 2000 and Supporting Actress in 2001) so I don't see any monumental shocks occurring.
If I could vote it'd go: Kate, Mickey, Heath, Penélope, cast of "Doubt".
But since they don't care what I say, I'll open some wine and have fun with Tina Fey's speech.

M.I.A at the Oscars.

That title of course has a double meaning, since not only will the British dance artist M.I.A get a chance to perform at the show (two songs from "Slumdog Millionaire" made the cut for Best Original Song) but it's also meant to analyze what happened to those missing in action, because as usual there were some whopping snubs (like Bruce Springsteen not getting a nomination for "The Wrestler"!).
Yes this all means that Academy Award nominations are finally here! (Or here for a more efficient read)
And boy were there a shock or two. As usual it was a mixed bag, since there will always be detractors and supporters for the nominees.
Biggest whoa of the morning: Kate Winslet getting one nomination and not for the movie she was campaigning, apparently AMPAS doesn't love her enough to give her a double nod.
I sadly haven't seen "The Reader" but now am dying to, especially because of the sneak attack it gave to other films. It remained under the radar up until Kate's Golden Globe win, but when I saw that Stephen Daldry got nominated in Best Director my jaw dropped to the floor.
He's three for three now, getting a Best Director nomination for each of the movies he's made (can he win it this time? Nah. Maybe if Danny Boyle and David Fincher split votes...).
Boyle and "The Reader" got in Best Picture and Best Director over Christopher Nolan and "The Dark Knight" who everyone assumed were getting in the lineup.
I never got in the Batman bandwagon, yes, it's a very well done film and yes anything is better than "Frost/Nixon", but the arrogant way fanboys, "journalists" and some critics handled this movie made the backlash understandable for me, those threats and beliefs that the movie was the Holy Grail made me actually annoyed by it.
On the other side it pissed me off a little that the Academy still has that genre aversion and if only for that I would've liked having seen it nominated.
My little brother, who loved "The Dark Knight", wisely said yesterday that the Academy would never nominate it for Best Picture. I was rooting for "WALL-E" to get in.
Heath Ledger got in of course and unless G-d himself comes down from the skies, there is no way he will lose this.
I was amazed to see that even if "Revolutionary Road" was snubbed in a major way, Michael Shannon got in for Best Supporting Actor!
"The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" led the nominations with 13, the film is indeed impressive in the technical department, so much that its effects convinced the Academy that Brad Pitt had given a performance worthy of a nomination...
I was thrilled to see Anne Hathaway get in, but she was a lock, and even if I'm not a fan of Melissa Leo and Richard Jenkins' movies, it was nice to see low key actors get a chance in the spotlight.
Ugh and someone should shut Ben Lyons up; in less than 30 seconds he threw out two of his facile praise blurbs declaring that both Ledger and Benjamin Button have determined before and afters in the history of their respective categories.
Anyways...
The race is shaping up to be rather predictable so far (that seems to happen on those rare occasions whe Director and Picture are exact matches...only happened four times with this one), there is no movie that musters real passion from me this year and the only good thing for me about the Winslet snub is that now Penélope has a sorta clear path to nab Supporting Actress (even if Woody was snubbed in Screenplay).
I was mostly pissed at the fact that Sally Hawkins wasn't nominated for Best Actress, especially when Mike Leigh's screenplay for "Happy-Go-Lucky" did, which is kinda silly considering that Hawkins was the one who brought all the words to life!
But then when all looks bad you see that Werner Herzog is an Academy Award nominee and everything seems to be alright in the world.

Golden Globe Predictions.

If there's something we can thank the Hollywood Foreign Press for, besides the delicious way they get stars drunk, is that they often have the balls to do stuff Grandpa Oscar would only dream of.
Their choices for Best Picture can go from the silly to the groundbreaking and while they're starfuckers of the highest caliber they usually reward the best in their categories.
I don't think Meryl Streep will win anything tonight even if she's up for two, but if I had a request it would be for all the winners to ask her graciously to give their speeches for them or at least have her go through their notes before going up the podium.
Sigh, now I'm wishing she wins them all..

Best Motion Picture-Drama
Will win: "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
Should win: "Revolutionary Road"

"Slumdog Millionaire" might take it because it's been sweeping, but Globe voters might feel this is too happy to be in this category for starters. They've loved their epics in the past which is why it's easy to predict Benjamin for the win. But out of the nominees, Sam Mendes' film about marital discomfort is probably the best, a film that stays with you even if the first time it wasn't quite what you expected and even when you know it wasn't a masterpiece.
Can it be one of those movies that grows better with time? The Globes could want to say they predicted that before everyone else.

Best Actor-Drama
Will win: Mickey Rourke "The Wrestler"
Should win: Rourke or Sean Penn for "Milk"

The battle of the bad boys as Penn and Rourke take on a couple of sensitive dudes.
If I could hope for a tie, it would be for these two who are spectacular in a beautifully quiet way.
But if I have to put my money on one I guess Rourke is the comeback story and he's probably give a drunker speech.
Who cares if he was last good in the 80s? These people after all awarded Pia Zadora back then.

Best Actress-Drama
Will win: Kate Winslet "Revolutionary Road"
Should win: Kate Winslet "Revolutionary Road"

If that Anne Hathaway incident a few days ago wasn't an accident, then she deserves her award for her beautiful performance in "Rachel Getting Married". But I have chosen to take that as an html Freudian slip, the HFPA wants to award Hathaway but they owe it to Kate and guess what, unlike those overdue people she is breathtaking in "Revolutionary Road".
Even if it seems she's done the same role a million times before, her performance feels everything but old.

Best Motion Picture- Comedy or Musical
Will win: "Vicky Cristina Barcelona"
Should win: "Vicky Cristina Barcelona"

The Globes have a ball in this category because they never ever choose the one everyone expects (just look at last year for example). This year they might reward "Mamma Mia" because it was huge at the international box office, but the movie itself was mediocre at best. "Happy-Go-Lucky" which is a masterpiece might have a shot at it, but the award for its actress will be seen as an award for both categories. That leaves us with Woody Allen's luscious love letter to Barcelona, which beautifully combined sex, angst, heartbreak, food poisoning and murderous ex-wives and still made us crave to be a part of it.

Best Actor - Musical or Comedy
Will win: Dustin Hoffman "Last Chance Harvey"
Should win: Colin Farrell "In Bruges"

Farrell had a wonderful year with this and "Cassandra's Dream" where he proved that beyond the attitude, sex tapes and smoking we first got to know him as an actor.
I'm guessing he splits votes with his co-star Brendan Gleeson and we'll end with a sweet victory for the legendary Hoffman.

Best Actress - Musical or Comedy
Will win: Sally Hawkins "Happy-Go-Lucky"
Should win: Sally Hawkins "Happy-Go-Lucky", Rebecca Hall "Vicky Cristina Barcelona"

Poor Rebecca Hall had to go and give her brilliant performance the year Hawkins delivered one of the greatest performances of the decade in Mike Leigh's transcendental, beautiful ode to hope.
Watch out for Meryl Streep who danced and sang beautifully in "Mamma Mia", but the movie sucked and maybe the reward was proving once again she's G-d in actress form.

Best Supporting Actor:
Will win: Heath Ledger "The Dark Knight"
Should win: Heath Ledger "The Dark Knight"

I've made my peace with the fanboys and now I don't desire they get their asses kicked for their arrogance, so I agree with Ledger getting his posthumous reward.
Although I have to confess I did love Ralph Fiennes in "The Duchess" and thought Robert Downey Jr. was splendid in "Tropic Thunder".
Oh and Tom Cruise. Seriously?

Best Supporting Actress:
Will win: Penélope Cruz "Vicky Cristina Barcelona"
Should win: Penélope Cruz "Vicky Cristina Barcelona"

Not only is she a definition of what makes the HFPA, she also gave a ferocious, beautiful performance in Woody Allen's gorgeous film that nobody saw coming.

Best Director- Motion Picture
Will win: Danny Boyle "Slumdog Millionaire"
Should win: Sam Mendes "Revolutionary Road"

This one's pretty much a lock and the HFPA does love spreading the wealth.

Best Screenplay - Motion Picture
Will win: Simon Beaufoy "Slumdog Millionaire"
Should win: Simon Beaufoy "Slumdog Millionaire"

I'm abstaining from passing judgement towards "The Reader" and "Doubt" because I haven't been lucky enough to watch them, so who knows if they might be good adaptations.
But with what I've got, Beaufoy's gimmicky narrative makes a much better story than whatever Eric Roth was thinking by grabbing Fitzgerald's moving and funny "Benjamin Button" and turning it into a cornier version of "Forrest Gump".
And as much as I love what Peter Morgan does to legendary leaders' biopics, "Frost/Nixon" annoyed me more than anything.

Best Foreign Language Film
Will win: "Gomorrah"
Should win: "Gomorrah"

Everyone stopped talking about "I've Loved You So Long" ages ago even if it's such a good film and "Waltz With Bashir" will feel like it's cheating in this category, so expect the Globes to go for Matteo Garrone's epic, brilliant mafia saga.

Best Animated Film
Will win: "WALL-E"
Should win: "WALL-E"

There's just no other way this can go.

Best Score
Will win: Alexander Desplat "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
Should win: Desplar or A.H Rahman "Slumdog Millionaire"

Am I the only one tired that one of our greatest living composers is snubbed time after time after time? (He's only been nominated for an Oscar once!) His beautiful score for "Button" should do it, unless the voters are feeling more Bollywood.

Best Song
Will win: "The Wrestler" by Bruce Springsteen from "The Wrestler"
Should win: "Down to Earth" by Peter Gabriel from "WALL-E"

If Bruce Springsteen or Peter Gabriel get it I'll be a happy camper, just keep this away from Miley Cyrus' "song" from "Bolt".

On the TV side expect "30 Rock" to sweep and Anna Paquin to join the ranks of Jennifer Garner and Keri Russell (babes who get the Globe during their freshman season) for her work in "True Blood".
And may we all get as drunk as the stars tonight. Happy Globes!

BFCA Predicts the Oscars.

The Critics Choice Awards were held tonight and as their main goal and whole raison d'etre seems to predict who will win the Oscars they went with most of the favorites.
Best Picture, Director, Screenplay and Score went to "Slumdog Millionaire" as well as their bizarre juvenile award (which went to Dev Patel).
Heath Ledger paved his way to the Oscars (they just won't resist the need for a standing ovation) winning Best Supporting Actor and Kate Winslet was a sorta unexpected winner for Best Supporting Actress in "The Reader".
This award interests me a lot, because not only am I rooting for Penélope Cruz as anyone who reads me knows by now, (I've yet to see Winslet's film though...) but it might be one of those awards overdue actors get.
Like the time when Cate Blanchett won for "The Aviator" (who also happened to be terrific in her movie), it's like one of those "rules" that say give them the supporting award because they're never getting the lead one, unless you're Al Pacino.
Proving they need to force themselves as Oscar pronosticators Best Actress was a tie and went to Meryl Streep for "Doubt" who is the one everyone thinks should win and Anne Hathaway for "Rachel Getting Married" which is the one horny Academy award members would choose.
See, the BFCA isn't as frisky with ties as AMPAS, but I don't see this happening ever again.
As usual, once the BFCA show is over we're still left with the same old questions and boredom as before.
Bring the Globes on!

Golden Snubs.

The Hollywood Foreign Press had no doubt snubbing last knight's milk or something corny like that... as they announced their nominees for the 66th annual Golden Globe Awards and proved just how brilliantly insane they can get sometimes.
Bringing back to the spotlight films that were considered dead for award consideration (Both Kate Winslet pictures in "Best Drama"!) and featuring what might be the craziest Best Supporting Actor nominees ever, they always put a smile on your face, while they are a kick in the liver for others.

Motion Picture Nominees

Best Picture, Drama
"The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
"Frost/Nixon"
"The Reader"
"Revolutionary Road"
"Slumdog Millionaire"

Best Picture Comedy/Musical
"Burn After Reading"
"Happy Go Lucky"
"In Bruges"
"Mamma Mia"
"Vicky Cristina Barcelona"

Director
Danny Boyle, "Slumdog Millionaire"
Stephen Daldry, "The Reader"
David Fincher, "Ben Button"
Ron Howard, "Frost/Nixon"
Sam Mendes, "Revolutionary Road"

Actor, Drama
Leo DiCaprio, "Revolutionary Road"
Frank Langella, "Frost/Nixon"
Sean Penn, "Milk"
Brad Pitt, "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
Mickey Rourke, "The Wrestler"

Actress, Drama
Anne Hathaway, "Rachel Getting Married"
Angelina Joie, "Changeling"
Meryl Streep, "Doubt"
Kristin Scott Thomas, "I’ve Loved you So Long"
Kate Winslet, "Revolutionary Road"

Supporting Actor
Tom Cruise, "Tropic Thunder"
Robert Downey Jr. "Tropic Tunder"
Ralph Fiennes, "The Duchess"
Philip Seymour Hoffman, "Doubt"
Heath Ledger, "The Dark Knight"

Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, "Doubt"
Penelope Cruz, "Vicky Cristina Barcelona"
Viola Davis, "Doubt"
Marisa Tomei, "The Wrestler"
Kate Winslet, "The Reader"

Actor, Comedy
Javier Bardem, "Vicky Cristina Barcelona"
Colin Farrel, "In Bruges"
James Franco, "Pineapple Express"
Brendan Gleason, "In Bruges"
Dustin Hoffman, "Last Chance Harvey"

Actress, Comedy
Rebecca Hall, "Vicky Cristina Barcelona"
Sally Hawkins, "Happy-Go-Lucky"
Frances McDormand, "Burn After Reading"
Meryl Streep, "Mamma Mia"
Emma Thompson, "Last Chance Harvey"

Foreign Language Film
"The Baader Meinhof Complex" (Germany)
"Everlasting Moments" (Sweden)
"Gomorrah" (Italy)
"I’ve Loved You So Long" (France)
"Waltz with Bashir" (Israel)

Animated Feature
"Bolt"
"Kung Fu Panda"
"Wall-E"

Screenplay
"Slumdog Millionaire"
"The Reader"
"Frost/Nixon"
"The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
"Doubt"

Score
"The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
"Changeling"
"Defiance"
"Slumdog Millionaire"
"Frost/Nixon"

Song
Down to Earth, "Wall-E"
Gran Torino, "Gran Torino"
I thought I Lost You, "Bolt"
Once in a Lifetime, "Cadillac Records"
The Wrestler, "The Wrestler"

The HFPA always makes sure their nominations announcement is sort of a prelude to the fratboy-ish nature of the actual ceremony.
This year they made Brooke Shields name Tom Cruise as a nominee for "Best Supporting Actor" which made the entire room burst out in laughter and gave Brooke an awkward smirk.
Other great moments included when James Franco was nominated for the least expected of his roles, the TV guy from E! predicting Cruise's nod and when "In Bruges" made a sudden appearance (it is a very good movie after all and Colin Farrell was superb).
Now the actual nominations were felt like a splash of cold water especially when "The Dark Knight" and "Milk" were not nominated for Best Picture and received exactly one nomination each.
It won't be long now 'til fanboys condemn the HFPA of hating comic books (forgetting that they have nominated the previous Batman films) and others start accusing them of homophobia (forgetting that in its year "Brokeback Mountain" won in the major categories).
The fact that they nominated Heath Ledger and Sean Penn means they saw, but they didn't love. Actually by taking a look at Best Supporting Actor you might actually say Ledger is a lock, although Ralph Fiennes was the best thing in "The Duchess".
Moving on, it was great to see Kate get the boost she needed. It was weird how they snubbed "Sex and the City" which they adored during its TV run and I'm ecstatic about the "Happy-Go-Lucky" love. Sally Hawkins pretty much has this in the bag.
Yay Penélope again and apparently they loved Woody Allen's film, sadly not enough to nominate him as well (the Oscar nod for Best Screenplay looks more promising now).
Overall it's an eclectic mix of nominees, including snubs and the very deserving ones.
After last year's sad press conference am I the only one childishly excited that the Globes are back?

I ♥ LAFCA.

Proving that L.A is not all about tans and crazy executives, the Los Angeles Film Critics Association has announced its winners for this year's awards and boy have they made great choices!

Picture: "Wall-E"
Runner-up: "The Dark Knight"

Director: Danny Boyle, "Slumdog Millionaire"
Runner-up: Christopher Nolan, "The Dark Knight"

Actor: Sean Penn, "Milk"
Runner-up: Mickey Rourke, "The Wrestler"

Actress: Sally Hawkins, "Happy-Go-Lucky"
Runner-up: Melissa Leo, "Frozen River"

Supporting actor: Heath Ledger, "The Dark Knight"
Runner-up: Eddie Marsan, "Happy-Go-Lucky"

Supporting actress: Penelope Cruz, "Vicky Cristina Barcelona" and "Elegy"
Runner-up: Viola Davis, "Doubt"

Screenplay: Mike Leigh, "Happy-Go-Lucky"
Runner-up: Charlie Kaufman, "Synecdoche, New York"

Foreign-language film: "Still Life"
Runner-up: "The Class"

Documentary: "Man on Wire"
Runner-up: "Waltz With Bashir"

Animation: "Waltz With Bashir"

Cinematography: Yu Lik Wai, "Still Life"
Runner-up: Anthony Dod Mantle, "Slumdog Millionaire"

Production design: Mark Friedberg, "Synecdoche, New York"
Runner-up: Nathan Crowley, "The Dark Knight"

Music/score: A.R. Rahman, "Slumdog Millionaire"
Runner-up: Alexandre Desplat, "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"

New Generation: Steve McQueen, "Hunger"

Douglas E. Edwards independent/experimental film/video: James Benning, "RR" and "Casting a Glance"

Apparently they loved their genre films this year with both comic books and animation featuring prominently in the list. Overall it's refreshing to see them choose things others only nominate (Eddie Marsan as runner-up to Ledger is brilliant and sorta hopeful).
I'm thrilled to see Sally Hawkins win something at last and Cruz continuing her walk towards the Kodak Theater, but mostly I'm ecstatic about "WALL-E" which is still the best film I've seen all year long. Can maybe this mean that just perhaps we might be staring at only the second animated film nominated for Best Picture at the Oscars?

The Dark Knight ***1/2

Director: Christopher Nolan
Cast:
Christian Bale,
Heath Ledger,
Aaron Eckhart
Maggie Gyllenhaal,
Michael Caine, Morgan Freeman, Gary Oldman

The essence of Christopher Nolan’s “The Dark Knight” is pretty much contained in an exchange of dialogue between two random characters.
Two men sit in a bar while everyone else in the city is consumed by fear. One of them asks “shouldn’t you be out there doing something?”, the other remains seated and replies “today’s my day off”.
The new entry in the Batman saga, might as well have been called “On the Gotham Waterfront” because like, and maybe not as deep since, the 1954 film it explores what makes a singular person stand up against a decaying world of corruption.
As a group of mobsters flood Gotham City with crime, three men unite to bring an end to the mob; Lieutenant James Gordon (Oldman) who seems to be the only incorruptible police member, new District Attorney Howard Dent (Eckhart) who has become a guiding light of hope in the arena of politics and billionaire Bruce Wayne (Bale) as the Batman, the masked vigilante who Gotham fears, hates and loves.
After a couple of big hits against organized crime, the mafia bosses receive a business proposition from a bizarre psychopath who calls himself the Joker (Ledger): for half their money, he will kill Batman for them.
Once they understand the scope of the Joker’s evil, they, ironically, take him seriously, accept his plan and stand back as the villain unleashes complete hell on the city.
The finale of “Batman Begins” was a thing of rare beauty; as a single card announced the arrival of a villain for the next chapter and the film somehow assumed that the audience would be back for more.
Turns out that this overpowering mix of excitement and arrogance was built upon steady grounds, because “The Dark Knight” not only fulfills the promise set by its predecessor, it raises the bar to a completely different level which films, not merely the ones inspired by comic books, rarely touch.
Nolan’s hyper realistic vision, gets under your skin and creates constant threat and fear, making this the most political film released so far this year as it deals with terrorism, impending cataclysms and seeping corruption without moralizing and going to absolutely dark places without becoming hopeless.
The Joker is Nolan’s biggest ally in this, because as a self professed lover of chaos he is as unpredictable and destructive as a force of nature.
Ledger’s performance is one of pure maniacal evil; wearing makeup he seems to have extracted from the ashes and blood of the dead, he moves like a sneaky creature. His scars are terrifying because you never learn where they come from (he delivers a different backstory to whoever he’s interested in destroying next) and whenever he’s not onscreen you fear what he will do next.
The whole film serves itself from this impending sense of doom, but Nolan is a master at keeping this feeling on various levels.
His idea of chaos doesn’t come only as obvious explosions and evident acts of terrorism (dealt with in thrilling and elaborated action sequences, where Wally Pfister’s cinematography shines and which the movie has plenty of), but the worst kind which grows inside all of his characters making them question the nature of good and evil.
Eckhart’s Dent begins as an idealistic politician, aided by his looks (which make him feel like Gary Cooper in a Capra film) and his defiant spirit, the actor brings a sense of optimistic sadness to Harvey, with Eckhart you feel the struggles he had to face to get where he’s at.
Those familiar with the Batman story (and sometimes the script becomes a bit predictable based on this need to satisfy its comic book roots) know that Dent will turn out for the worst and those that don’t, still will feel that he is too good to be true and will expect him to fulfill their need to be right and show his dark side.
Proving that Christopher and Jonathan Nolan’s screenplay has a point when it tackles people’s shaky view of moral grounds.
When you take into consideration that Dent and Wayne both are in love with the same woman (played by Gyllenhaal, more luminous than ever) and that fate plays a big deal in their lives, you realize that Dent is the real tragic figure of the story. He is the one the gods choose to play with.
In an ensemble that works wonders, Freeman as Lucius Fox and Caine as faithful butler Alfred, go beyond bringing the joy of their mere presences and deliver their lines with enough class to avoid being tagged as comedic relief.
Oldman’s Gordon anchors the film with a performance that draws from serenity and subtlety. His quiet manner and his strong belief in the good in others, especially in the slowly rotting system he’s part of, give the story its strongest axis of hope.
And Bale, who like Batman suffers from a syndrome of being given for granted, turns in the film’s most powerful performance as someone who has to take on all the troubles times two.
For his Bruce Wayne a line must be set between the careless playboy image and the part of him that comes closer to his alter ego and leads him to put his secret identity in jeopardy.
For his Batman a limit must be established between how strong is his will to fight injustice, without crossing to the side of lawlessness.
This is no ordinary superhero and Bale vanishes so much into both of them that even his character begins to feel shakable.
While we wonder what makes people choose between good and evil, Bale pushes us further and at moments makes us believe that Wayne is so selfish that as Batman he uses Gotham (designed by Nathan Crowley as a concrete labyrinth that rivals the mind in terms of dark alleys) as his personal playground or as his unlimited therapy session where he can battle his demons at the sake of others.
The Joker feeds from this sense of duality inside everyone and in the film’s greatest scene poses a dilemma of Melvillean proportions between the passengers of two ferries.
During these moments you can see “the whole world contained in one place” as people fighting for survival build democracy for contingencies, wonder about the paths they’ve taken in their lives and even dare to think they can decide who lives and who doesn’t.
Interestingly enough, here the audience also makes a choice and based on this personal decision the film will have a different outcome for anyone who watches it.
While for some it will instill the need to find the light shining in the darkest places, for others who have laughed at the Joker’s horrifying deeds it will just be a reassurance of apocalypse.
What remains true is that in “The Dark Knight”s sadomasochist view of the world the brave ones are those who wonder if we’ve become immune to other people’s pain; with the potential for the heroic lying in the path this leads them to.